Furthermore, after the succession of riots and extreme weather events that occurred over the country in the last year and that cost S/11.9 billion (1.2% of GDP), according to the estimate of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).

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Faced with this, the Government launched the Unidos Perú economic reactivation plan last week, the same one that “has been consulted with the economic sectors” and that will contribute to the country recovering“Trust in numbers” from March and April 2024, indicated the president of the Council of Ministers, Alberto Otárola.

Is this trust shared by companies and business associations?

MINING PROJECTS

Víctor Góbitz, president of the National Society of Mining, Petroleum and Energy (SNMPE)considers that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the mining sector.

This is because the Government is convinced that the fastest way to reactivate the economy is to develop the portfolio of mining projects.

“That is what makes me optimistic, because we have spoken with the president of the Council of Ministers, with the Minister of Economy (Alex Contreras) and with the Minister of Energy and Mines (Óscar Vera), and everyone believes that this is the path”Góbitz points out.

Mining businessmen urge the government to make the development of as many brownfield projects (mine expansions) viable as possible. In the photo, enlargement of Toromocho. (Photo: USI)

This was, says the union leader, what the SNMPE explained in the meeting that the business unions held with the Executive last Monday. That and the need to expedite the procedures for the approval of environmental permits, but “without relaxing standards”.

To say of Luis Rivera, executive vice president of Gold Fields for the Americasthis may be the signal that mining is waiting for “reduce the execution times of mining projects and contribute to the development of the country”.

A valuable tool for this task, he indicates, is the Digital Single Window, that the president of the Council of Ministers promised to implement in Perumin 36 (September).

It is in response to this that the Government has proposed optimizing environmental requirements and enabling the construction of seven mining projects for US$4,646 million until 2025.

Góbitz and Rivera warn, however, that the government should also focus on making the development of the brownfield projects (mine expansion), since these are investments that are easier to approve and build than greenfield projects (new mines).

According to SNMPE estimates, there are about 40 brownfield projects that could be executed in the short term if the procedures for their approval are expedited.

The construction sector would close 2023 with a drop of -3% or -4%, but could grow 3% or more with the appropriate stimuli from the Executive.

The construction sector would close 2023 with a drop of -3% or -4%, but could grow 3% or more with the appropriate stimuli from the Executive.

/ Hugo Supo

MORE HOUSING

Also optimistic is Jorge Zapata, president of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco)guild that has been experienced “a very bad year” due to the absence of investments in the private sector.

In fact, the union leader says that construction could close 2023 with a drop of -3% or -4%. However, he warns that the sector would grow 3% or more next year if the Government “does things well”.

To this end, it proposes, among other measures, to boost housing construction by updating (increasing) the amounts of the bonds granted by the State so that “Families are buying homes again and construction is skyrocketing.””.

The objective, note Ricardo Arbulú, general manager of Ciudaris, is to achieve a horizon of stability that allows structuringlarge-scale social housing projects”, of 100, 200 or 500 apartments each.

In his opinion, this is fully feasible because Peru has a structural demand for more than 2 million homes, of which 600 thousand correspond to people who ““They are looking for a place to live, they have credit and have saved part of the initial payment,” points out.

Eduardo Herrera, general manager of Grupo Centenarioadds that all this must be complemented with medium and long-term measures, such as the unblocking of permits in the Ministry of Housing, the effective transfer of sanitation services in Sedapal and the ““permanent fight against corruption in the various stages of real estate development.”

Economic indicators experience adverse results in 2023, but would improve next year.

Economic indicators experience adverse results in 2023, but would improve next year.

What are the expectations in the sectors linked to mass consumption?

CHALLENGING OVERVIEW

The Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL) agrees with the SNMPE that it is urgent to reactivate investment-intensive projects to move the economy and improve consumer expectations, “that are in pessimistic stretches”.

Thus, the union estimates that private consumption could close the year with a growth of just 0.7%, which is a “quite low result compared to previous years“, Explain Óscar Chávez, head of the Institute of Business Development Economics of the guild.

For the economist, it is clear that if consumer confidence falls due to fear of recession, private consumption will not increase.

Jesús López, country manager of Aje Perú, warns that the outlook for the mass consumption sector will be challenging in 2024 due to the impact of the recession and a basic family basket that “It has been reducing, especially in the last semester”.

However, he looks to the horizon with optimism.

In his opinion, this means an opportunity for the development of products with affordable prices, where innovation “will play a key role in developing formats that meet the needs of all Peruvians”

Entrepreneurs in the automotive sector envision a rebound in their sales in 2024.

Entrepreneurs in the automotive sector envision a rebound in their sales in 2024.

In the same way, Claudio Ortiz, general manager of Hyundai Peruenvisions a more promising 2024 for the sale of light vehicles, after the downturn in the fourth quarter of 2023 (-7% to -8%).

This, from the hand of “the recovery of the economy and the level of consumer confidence”, he points out.

If that happens, it will be a good sign for the economy, since the automotive sector generates “more than 400 thousand formal direct positions and more than one million indirect positions“, he points out Karsten Kunckel, president of the Automotive Association of Peru (AAP).

“It is so clear that without vehicles there is no development. “Our associates are the ones who put the country on wheels, and without that there is no productivity,” highlights the union leader.

In sum, Willard Manrique, CEO of the Crosland Grouppoints out that the reactivation of the economy will depend on the Government managing to regain business confidence.

And to do this, it must generate a better investment climate, articulate a much more fluid political dialogue and mobilize the necessary efforts to reduce social conflict, when it arises.



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