We are evaluating it. There is a significant delay. In practical terms, the load has been reduced, but we are evaluating it. We do not want to affect the reactivation, we will also communicate this at the time“, said.

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In 2023 there was no increase in the ISC due to the high inflation accumulated in the previous year.

On the other hand, the Sunat confirmed that during 2023 the collection for the ISC It reached S/9,328 million. This result represented an income of S/302 million more than in 2022.

Despite this, in recent months there has been a slowdown in the amount collected for this concept. According to the Central Reserve Bank, in October 2023 S/807 million were collected, which represents a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, while in November the collection of ISC was S/775 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%.

In total, tax collection in 2023 totaled S/147,246 million.

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The specialists consulted for this report agreed that the increase in ISC In a context of recession and slowdown in consumption, it would not be an appropriate measure.

We are in a situation where there is a recession and we want to get out of it. There is a commitment from Minister Contreras to leave. So any elevation of taxes it would not be convenient. It is true that the law indicates that the ISC every January, but in the current context expectations are very important. If the taxes expectations will deteriorate and we will have problems“said Carlos Casas, former vice minister of Economy.

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Casas explained that one of the consequences of raising the ISC while consumption falls it would encourage the smuggling of products such as liquor or cigarettes. In that sense, he proposed that this year’s tax increase be postponed for subsequent years.

Inflation this year will be within the target range. Then in the following year the increase in ISC It could include inflation and a slight additional, to compensate for the fact that it was not raised this year. This adjustment can be made each year to even out”he added.

For his part, Klever Espinoza, partner of the KERZ study, warned that in other countries in the region the rise in ISC resulted in greater smuggling.

When the tax burden increases, so does illicit consumption. Not necessarily because the price increases one will stop buying, but rather one will find alternatives. In recent years in countries such as Colombia, Ecuador and Panama, the tax burden on cigarettes has increased and illegal sales have increased.”, he questioned.

Likewise, he stressed that the effects of this situation could be reflected in the medium and long term, as happened in the aforementioned countries.

For example, Colombia experienced a 200% rate increase (from ISC), between 2016 and 2018. In parallel, the incidence of illicit trade increased from 13% in 2016 to 34% in 2022. In Ecuador, the tax increased by almost 80% in the period from 2014 to 2016 (.. .) and today eight out of every 10 cigarettes are of illegal origin in that country”, he detailed.

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The reduction in consumption of this type of products occurs because they are considered goods with elastic demand, that is, their demand can be significantly affected by small variations in their price.

If you increase the ISC What you are going to generate is less consumption and by generating less consumption there will be less revenue. Being goods with elastic demand, if there is a significant increase there may be an impact on the quantity purchased in the market. But it would also depend on how much the rate increase is.“explained Víctor Valdez, partner of the Rebaza, Alcázar & De Las Casas studio, a firm whose clients are alcoholic beverage brands.



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