“What the country needs is a shock of confidence, security and infrastructure.”points out Fernando Eguiliz, CEO of BBVA Peru.

LOOK: CADE 2023: How can business leadership help the reactivation of the Peruvian economy?

How dynamic has the business been perceived during 2023? Is it a recession year?

2023 has been very intense. We had a start to the year that we thought would be more complicated after the coup d’état on December 7, but it was better than the estimates we had from the point of view of the banking business. The second part of the year has been more complicated given the environment in which we find ourselves, the economic forecasts that we have been seeing on the decline, the shocks of external factors and Cyclone Yaku, which we had not considered either. We are having less dynamism than we had been seeing during the first semester.

The default ratio was 4.77% during 2022. How much more can we expect for this year?

The second part of the year is getting complicated in general. We are seeing greater customer difficulties in the SME world. Small SMEs are suffering the most.

Are these credits less than S/50 thousand?

They are credits in the range of S/150 thousand to S/200 thousand. Also because we have seen less dynamism from companies and corporations. So, I believe that what the country is suffering is the lack of growth of corporations and large companies, because they are the ones that drag down, in the end, the SME.

LOOK | BCR: Business expectations fall in October

Is this the segment that has been hit hardest by the recession?

They are the ones who have suffered the most. I would summarize it like this: We have three large groups that are having a more complicated situation. They are card-holders, consumer loans and small business owners.

Could we expect, then, that during the first six months of 2024 loans will grow moderately or is stagnation expected?

I would relate it to the impact of the El Niño Phenomenon. We have seen that the forecasts are for a strong phenomenon. To the extent that we can quickly reactivate the economies of the north of the country, that will help a lot to also reactivate this entire group of clients. I am very hopeful that the El Niño Phenomenon will not have such a strong impact, and that we will execute the periods of investment, both by the government and the private initiative, very quickly to return to the path of growth that the country has been on. had during the last 20 years, excluding the time of pandemic and this second semester, which is being more complicated.

If we return to the path of growth, how much could it amount to next year? Do you have any estimates at BBVA?

Yes. We have an estimate from our research teams, and next year’s growth should be 2.3%, but it is highly conditional on investment in recovery in the northern part of the country.

Is that a cautious growth estimate?

It is cautious growth. It will also be conditional on the closing of growth in 2023. Our latest estimate is 0.4% with a downward bias. I personally believe that we are going to be very close to 0% or even below zero. It is not what I want, but it will be there and this is what will determine the rebound that we may be having in 2024.

ALSO READ | Contreras on pension reform: “Our proposal is the only fiscally sustainable one”

Are the 25 measures launched by the MEF positive?

They are positive, of course. What I believe is that what the country needs is a shock of confidence, security and infrastructure. And this is summarized by the government’s measures.

Are they enough?

I would dare to say with great respect to the government that, If I could add or put something else on the table, we need a program similar to Reactiva Perú.

Well, the Executive has launched a last Reactiva that is scheduled for before December.

Yes, but for certain customer segments. I believe that this also has to be expanded to the business segment, because the business segment is the one that is going to pull and reactivate the MSMEs and SMEs.

That is, to medium-sized companies?

Medium and large companies. I believe that that is where we must also make a liquidity shock so that this cornerstone of the economy moves more quickly.

How can BBVA contribute, framing CADE’s message: ‘Believe again to grow again’?

We always talk about what needs to be done. We have carried out many diagnoses. I believe that we are already perfectly well diagnosed with what needs to be done. We must take action, we must execute these rapid injection shocks of confidence, security and infrastructure that the country needs. And so as not to stay in the ‘must do’ thing, we are investing S/600 million for next year. This year we also invested S/600 million. We are committed to medium and long-term growth. We accompany our clients to understand them and be able to help them.

Source link

Leave a Comment


No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *